Ship Recycling Markets Brace for Turbulence as Currency Shifts and Regulatory Chaos Collide
A Perfect Storm of Economic Pressures and Policy Uncertainty
The U.S. dollar flexed its muscles last week, gaining ground against currencies in key ship recycling nations—except China. This currency shift, combined with erratic steel plate prices (some markets firmed, others declined, and a few flatlined), has left recyclers scrambling to adjust their calculus. Meanwhile, India and Bangladesh reported a welcome uptick in vessel arrivals and deliveries, temporarily alleviating tonnage shortages that had plagued buyers for months.
“The market is walking a tightrope—low pricing, murky fundamentals, and the Hong Kong Convention chaos are making every deal feel like a gamble,” a Mumbai-based broker told GMS.
Bangladesh’s recent clearance of backlogged vessels—thanks to ministry exemptions for yards approved under the Hong Kong Convention—offers a glimmer of progress. But the relief is partial: non-certified yards remain gridlocked, their docks littered with stranded hulls. This regulatory patchwork is exacerbating divisions in a market already strained by economic headwinds.
Desperate Moves and Monsoon Forecasts
India and Pakistan, neither bound by the Hong Kong Convention’s rules, are emerging as unlikely safe harbors. Recyclers there are capitalizing on economic desperation, snapping up vessels even as freight rates stabilize. But the real reckoning may come in late 2025. Analysts predict a surge in aging ships heading for demolition as trading opportunities dwindle—despite the monsoon season’s traditional slowdown.
“H2 2025 could be a bloodbath for owners clinging to obsolete tonnage,” warns a Chittagong buyer. “The monsoon won’t save them this time.”
GMS’s Week 20 rankings for 2025 (specifics undisclosed) hint at deepening regional disparities, with pricing tiers reflecting each nation’s regulatory and economic fractures. For an industry built on razor-thin margins, the coming months will test whether adaptability can outpace instability.
