Oil, Speed Limits, and the Last 51 Rice’s Whales

How a Legal Fight Over Drilling Could Decide the Fate of a Species

The Trump administration’s newly released environmental assessment delivers a stark warning: oil and gas drilling in the Gulf of Mexico—rebranded the “Gulf of America” in 2020—poses an existential threat to the critically endangered Rice’s whale. With just 51 individuals remaining, the species’ survival hinges on vessel speed limits and a 500-meter (547 yards) buffer zone imposed by federal regulators. But the rules, drafted under court order, are already sparking fierce debate between industry groups and conservationists.

“The jeopardy finding creates unnecessary regulatory uncertainty,” argues Erik Milito, president of the National Ocean Industries Association (NOIA).

The revised biological opinion, published ahead of a May 21 court deadline, replaces a 2021 assessment deemed inadequate for underestimating risks from oil spills and ship strikes. While industry lobbyists like the American Petroleum Institute (API) praised the analysis itself, they rejected its core conclusion—that drilling activities could “jeopardize” the whales—as scientifically flawed. Meanwhile, environmental lawyers at Earthjustice counter that the measures don’t go far enough: the assessment still greenlights operations projected to kill 9 whales and injure 3 over the next 45 years.

Legal pressure loomed over the process. The update avoids disrupting energy operations—a priority for the administration—but leaves conservationists demanding stricter protections. “This isn’t compromise; it’s capitulation,” says one Earthjustice attorney, noting that Rice’s whales, which surface slowly and feed near shipping lanes, are uniquely vulnerable to collisions. With 90% of the population wiped out since 2019, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

“Permitting even ‘acceptable’ losses guarantees extinction,” warns marine biologist J.P. Sylvan. “Fifty-one whales isn’t a population—it’s a funeral procession.”

As lawsuits loom, the Gulf’s future hangs in the balance. For the Rice’s whale, the math is brutal: one ship strike every five years could erase the species by 2070. Speed limits might buy time, but with drilling leases expanding and legal battles raging, regulators are betting against the clock.