MOL’s LNG Carrier Dilemma: China, Korea, and the Geopolitics of Shipbuilding

Navigating Tariffs and Trust

Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL), Japan’s shipping giant, is walking a tightrope between cost and risk as it evaluates Chinese and South Korean shipyards for new LNG carrier orders. The decision isn’t just about steel and welding—it’s a high-stakes bet on U.S. policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, and the future of clean energy logistics. Recent speculation about MOL suspending orders to Chinese yards has forced the company to clarify: it’s not ruling anyone out yet, but “prudent judgment” will dictate where its ships are built.

“LNG remains critical for global decarbonization, and our mission is to ensure stable energy supplies,” a MOL spokesperson noted, underscoring the balancing act between economics and energy security.

The China Factor

Chinese shipyards, like Dalian COSCO KHI Ship Engineering—which recently secured an MOL order for an LNG-fueled VLCC—are “important partners” for diversification. But the calculus is changing. Starting October 2025, U.S. policies will slap tariffs of $18–$120 per net ton/container on Chinese-built vessels, with few exemptions. For MOL, which operates in a globally interconnected market, these costs could ripple through freight rates and contracts. Worse, whispers of potential U.S. port fees targeting Chinese-built ships add another layer of uncertainty.

Korea’s Allure

South Korean yards, long the gold standard for LNG carrier construction, offer a safer bet on quality and safety. But they come at a premium. MOL’s dilemma mirrors the broader industry’s scramble to hedge risks: lock in cheaper Chinese builds now and absorb future tariffs, or pay upfront for Korean reliability? The company insists it’s assessing both options, weighing geopolitical volatility alongside delivery timelines and technical specs.

One thing’s clear: as LNG demand grows, so does the pressure to secure ships—fast. MOL’s choice won’t just shape its fleet; it’s a litmus test for how global trade navigates a fractured world.