Better assessment of uncertainty in Probabilistic Petrophysical Models using Monte Carlo simulation
September 19, 2017
Recorded Webinar to be broadcast at 9:00 AM (CST).
When assessing the value of a given prospect or field, we can define three values relating to its reserves; proven reserves, probable reserves and possible reserves. These are sometime referred to as 1P, 2P and 3P. The worth of any given prospect and hence the ability to borrow money against it for development, is related to the proven reserves only.
The greater the uncertainty around a prospect’s reserves, or the further the proven reserves are from the probably and possible, the less value can be booked.
Monte Carlo Simulation is a technique commonly used in a deterministic petrophysical analysis to better understand and thus minimize this uncertainty. Such implementations within a probabilistic approach, however, are far more complex and not routinely available. Geolog® 8 provides the option to run Monte Carlo Uncertainty Simulations on top of new or existing Multimin models for the first time.